With the current stay-at-home order expiring on June 2, Ontario’s top health experts are recommending delaying a partial reopening in the province for an additional two weeks, until June 16.
Adalsteinn Brown, co-chair of the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table, and Dr. David Williams, Ontario’s chief medical officer of health, provided an update on Ontario’s COVID-19 modelling data during a media conference at Queen’s Park on Thursday afternoon (May 20).
“The direction of the pandemic has turned and, if we’re careful and cautious, we can maintain this momentum — and this momentum is what gets us to a good summer,” Brown said. “The number of cases and hospitalization are falling. That is good news, but we need to temper this good news with the knowledge that our hospitals are still under incredible strain.”
Brown added that, while hospitalizations are decreasing, the number of people in hospital with COVID-19 has just dropped below the peak of the second wave.
“We still have a very high number of patients with COVID-19 in our intensive care units, and a higher proportion of these patients remain on life support,” he said.
While Brown said control of the pandemic, especially in hot spots, is improving due to public health measures, vaccinations, and the efforts of Ontarians, “We’re nowhere near yet the case counts in countries like the United Kingdom.”
Brown said the models suggest a partial reopening of the province on June 2 will lead to a rise in cases that will only subside later in the summer. Delaying the reopening until the middle of June will bring cases down to a very low level, with a consistent downward trend throughout the summer.
“Opening schools on the 2nd, and nothing else, takes us somewhere between these options,” Brown added, with modelling suggesting the case increase from reopening schools “may be manageable”.
Brown said partial reopening includes the reopening of retail, schools, and outdoor amenities — similar to the situation in March before the current stay-at-home order went into effect.
In either scenario, Brown said outdoor activities are much safer than indoor activities and should be encouraged. People only need to wear masks during outdoor activities if they can’t maintain two metres of distance (for example, when playing basketball).
However, people engaging in outdoor activities should avoid socializing with others afterwards (such as by dining together or sharing food), going to crowded outdoor places, carpooling together, travelling between regions, sharing overnight accommodation with others, or using locker rooms, clubhouses, or shared amenities.
Premier Doug Ford is scheduled to make an announcement at Queen’s Park at 3 p.m. on Thursday afternoon.
PDF: Update on COVID-19 Projections (May 20, 2021)
Update on COVID-19 Projections (May 20, 2021)
