Omicron is now the dominant variant in Ontario and will likely result in the “hardest wave” of the pandemic in Ontario, according to modelling projections presented by Ontario’s COVID-19 science advisory table on Thursday (December 16).
Cases will dramatically increase and, if no additional public health measures are taken, could reach 10,000 per day by the new year. With additional public health measures, the number of new daily cases is projected to reach 5,000 by the beginning of the new year, with as many as 300 people in intensive care units.
“We’re still learning about this new variant,” said Adalsteinn Brown, co-chair of the science advisory table, at a media conference on Thursday morning. “It emerged only last month, but it’s important to talk about what we do know. First, it transmits incredibly fast. Doubling time for cases may be down to just over two days now, compared to four days or more with previous variants.”
“The broad picture of being highly transmissible and serious is clear,” Brown said. “Modelling shows that cases will likely dramatically increase very soon.”
Referring to data from South Africa and Denmark, Brown said the omicron variant does cause serious disease and needs to be treated as seriously as the delta variant.
“Hospital rates have risen in South Africa where it first took hold,” Brown said. “It’s not just a case of the sniffles.”
According to Brown, the province can expect to see hospitalizations increase two to three weeks after cases increase. Even if omicron is 25 per cent less serious than delta, Ontario hospitals will still face “incredibly strong pressures,” he added.
“This will come at an already challenging time, when health care workers are fatigued or burned out from the preceding waves. If we want to blunt this wave — please note that I am saying blunt it, not flatten it — we will need to reduce contacts between people. I believe we can do this without closing schools or shutting down businesses that have suffered during previous waves, but it will take serious restrictions that reduce contact.”
PDF: Update on COVID-19 Projections (December 15, 2021)
Update on COVID-19 Projections (December 15, 2021)
“At the same time, we need to drive boosters up as high as possible to protect vulnerable individuals and vulnerable communities and we need to keep vaccinating kids,” Brown said. “But neither public health measures nor vaccinations will be enough on their own to blunt the omicron wave. Public health measures will slow the spread of omicron but they are not sustainable in the long run. Vaccination provides our exit plan from the pandemic, but it takes a while to take effect.”
Brown said that a “circuit breaker” with strong additional public health measures to reduce contacts between people by 50 per cent and at least 250,000 booster shots daily could blunt the omicron wave.
Those additional public health measures could include additional reductions in capacity limits and stronger enforcement of masking indoors, such as ensuring people wear masks properly.
“It’s not really any sort of new things that we haven’t seen before, it’s those core public health measures,” Brown said.
Wearing high-quality masks, physical distancing indoors, improved ventilation, and increased access to rapid testing will buy time for boosters to take effect, he said.
“This will likely be the hardest wave of the pandemic,” Brown noted. “But if we can control it and drive vaccinations as hard as we can, we can make it to the exit. And there is an exit plan from the pandemic. We just need to push as hard as we can and control its immediate impact as much as we can tolerate.”
“There is still some uncertainty, but there is also an undeniable urgency,” he added. “Waiting to take action means waiting until it is too late to take action.”
Brown explained that data from Gauteng in South Africa, which appears to show omicron is less virulent than delta, is not transferable in Ontario. The median age in Guateng is 27, compared to 41 in Ontario, with older age being one of the most important factors in predicting serious illness.
In addition, the estimated percentage of highly immune adults in Gauteng, either through previous infections or through vaccinations or a combination of both, is estimated to be twice as higher as in Ontario (32 per cent Gauteng versus 15 per cent in Ontario).
A steep rise in omicron cases in South Africa has been followed by a steep rise in hospitalizations, Brown said, and early data from Denmark indicates the percentage of cases requiring hospital admission is not lower with omicron.
“Although this is an incredible threat, both to health and to our health system, we do have a tremendous amount on which to base hope, not the least of which are the vaccines,” Brown said. “But it must be hope built on action. Anything we can do now, whether as an individual or as a province, will help. Please, please get vaccinated as soon as you go.”
