Second vaccine doses in ‘Delta hot spots’ key to preventing fourth wave of COVID-19 in Ontario over summer

Provincial science experts present updating modelling as Ontario reports 590 new cases, including 6 in the greater Kawarthas region

Adalsteinn Brown, co-chair of the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table, presents updated COVID-19 modelling projections at a media conference at Queen's Park on June 10, 2021. (CPAC screenshot)
Adalsteinn Brown, co-chair of the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table, presents updated COVID-19 modelling projections at a media conference at Queen's Park on June 10, 2021. (CPAC screenshot)

Here’s an update on COVID-19 cases in Ontario as well as in the greater Kawarthas region.

With Ontario reporting a jump of 590 new cases today, the province’s top science experts provided an update on COVID-19 modelling projections, both acknowledging the province’s success at containing the third wave of the pandemic and cautioning of the risk of a fourth wave due to the Delta variant.

“The modelling we will share today suggests that, with a few points of caution, we can look forward to a much better summer,” said Adalsteinn Brown, co-chair of the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table, at a media conference at Queen’s Park on Thursday (June 10). “We’ve made strong progress on vaccination and we can point to falling hospitalization rates and to declining ICU occupancy.”

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“To be clear, we’re not out of the woods just yet,” Brown added. “Our ICUs still have more COVID-19 patients than they did at the peak of the second wave. The Delta variant — that we also call B.1.617.2, the variant that hit India so hard — is here, and it is on track to be the dominant form of the virus this summer. But we believe we can control it with the right actions.”

Those actions include getting as many Ontarians as possible vaccinated with a second dose of vaccine, Brown said, since one dose is less effective against the Delta variant than against the original strain and the Alpha variant (B.1.1.7, which originated in the UK).

Brown said the Delta variant is about 50 per cent more transmissible than the Alpha variant and potentially more dangerous.

To prevent a fourth wave of the pandemic due to the more transmissible the province intends to get as many Ontarians their second dose of vaccine as soon as possible. (Graphic: Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table)
To prevent a fourth wave of the pandemic due to the more transmissible the province intends to get as many Ontarians their second dose of vaccine as soon as possible. (Graphic: Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table)

Brown said the government can help control the spread and impact of the Delta variant by increasing the number of first doses across Ontario, and by increasing second doses in regions at higher risk of the Delta variant.

Earlier in the day, the province announced it was accelerating administration of second doses in “Delta hot spots” including Halton, Peel, Porcupine, Toronto, Waterloo, Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph and York.

In those regions, Ontarians who received their first dose of Pfizer or Moderna on or before May 9 will be able to book their second-dose appointment starting on Monday (June 14).

PDF: Update on COVID-19 Projections – June 10, 2021
Update on COVID-19 Projections - June 10, 2021

Of today’s new cases, most are in Peel and Toronto, which are both again reporting triple-digit increases. However, half of Ontario’s 34 health units are reporting 5 or fewer cases and the seven-day average of daily cases has decreased to 617.

Hospitalizations, ICU patients, and patients on ventilators have all decreased. Ontario is reporting 11 deaths, with no new deaths in long-term care homes.

With more than 10.6 million vaccine doses administered, including a record number of doses administered yesterday, over 72% of Ontario’s total population has received at least a single dose. Over 9% of the population is now fully vaccinated, with a record number of second doses administered yesterday.

In the greater Kawarthas region, there are 6 new cases to report (including 3 in Kawartha Lakes, 2 in Peterborough, and 1 in Hastings Prince Edward) and an additional 10 cases resolved. The net number of active cases in the region has decreased by 2 to 69. Active cases have decreased by 4 in Kawartha Lakes and increased by 1 in both Peterborough and Hastings Prince Edward. Active cases in Northumberland and Haliburton remain unchanged.

See below for more provincial and regional details.

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Provincial summary, details, and trend charts

Most of the new cases reported today are in Peel (130) and Toronto (114).

There have been double-digit increases in Waterloo (61), Hamilton (38), York (32), Niagara (26), Ottawa (25), Middlesex-London (23), Durham (21), Porcupine (18), Halton (17), and Simcoe Muskoka (16), with smaller increases in North Bay Parry Sound (9), Peterborough (9), Brant (9), Grey Bruce (8), and Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph (6).

The remaining 17 health units are reporting 5 or fewer new cases, with 5 health units reporting only 1 case and 4 health units reporting no new cases at all.

Of today’s new cases, 64% are among people 39 and younger, with the highest number of cases (257) among people ages 20-39, followed by 132 cases among people ages 40-59 and 122 cases among people 19 and under.

With 932 more cases resolved since yesterday, the percentage of resolved cases remains unchanged at 97.1%. The average positivity rate across Ontario also remains unchanged at 2.0%, meaning that 20 out of every 1,000 tests performed were positive for COVID-19 on June 9.

Ontario is reporting 11 new COVID-19 deaths today, with no new deaths in long-term care homes and the seven-day average of daily deaths increasing by 1 to 18.

Hospitalizations have decreased by 55 from yesterday to 516, with the number of patients with COVID-19 in ICUs decreasing by 16 to 450 and the number of patients with COVID-19 on ventilators falling by 23 to 291.

A total of 31,423 tests were completed yesterday, with the backlog of tests under investigation decreasing by 2,707 to 12,428.

A total of 10,627,469 doses of vaccine have now been administered, a record increase of 182,350 from yesterday, and 1,399,776 people have been fully vaccinated with both doses of vaccine, a record increase of 117,100 from yesterday.

The number of fully vaccinated people represents 9.5% of Ontario’s population, an increase of 0.79% from yesterday, with fully and partially vaccinated people representing 72.13% of the total population, an increase of 1.24% from yesterday. An estimated 70-90% of the population must be immunized to achieve herd immunity.

 

Province of Ontario

Confirmed positive: 538,077 (increase of 590)
COVID-19 variants of concern (VOC) cases: 136,117 of B.1.1.7 Alpha variant (increase of 1,509); 1,128 of B.1.351 Beta variant (increase of 3); 4,098 of P.1 Gamma variant (increase of 25)
VOC R(t): 0.74 (decrease of 0.01 as of June 9)*
7-day average of daily new cases: 617 (decrease of 40)
Positivity rate: 2.0% (no change)
Resolved: 522,682 (increase of 939), 97.1% of all cases (no change)
Hospitalizations: 516 (decrease of 55)
Hospitalizations in ICU: 450 (decrease of 16)
Hospitalizations in ICU on ventilator: 291 (decrease of 23)
Deaths: 8,931 (increase of 11)
7-day average of daily new deaths: 19 (increase of 1)
Deaths of residents in long-term care homes: 3,962 (no change)
Total tests completed: 15,486,313 (increase of 31,423)
Tests under investigation: 12,428 (decrease of 2,707)
Vaccination doses administered: 10,627,469 (increase of 182,350), 72.13% of Ontario’s total population (increase of 1.24%)**
People fully vaccinated (two doses): 1,399,776 (increase of 117,100), 9.50% of Ontario’s total population (increase of 0.79%)**

*R(t) is a virus’s effective reproduction number, which is the average number of new infections caused by a single infected individual at a specific time (t) in a partially immunized population. To successfully eliminate a disease from a population, R(t) needs to be less than 1.

**An estimated 70-90% of the population must be immunized to achieve herd immunity.

COVID-19 cases in Ontario from May 10 - June 9, 2021. The red line is the number of new cases reported daily, and the dotted green line is a five-day rolling average of new cases. (Graphic: kawarthaNOW.com)
COVID-19 cases in Ontario from May 10 – June 9, 2021. The red line is the number of new cases reported daily, and the dotted green line is a five-day rolling average of new cases. (Graphic: kawarthaNOW.com)
COVID-19 tests completed in Ontario from May 10 - June 9, 2021. The red line is the daily number of tests completed, and the dotted green line is a five-day rolling average of tests completed. (Graphic: kawarthaNOW.com)
COVID-19 tests completed in Ontario from May 10 – June 9, 2021. The red line is the daily number of tests completed, and the dotted green line is a five-day rolling average of tests completed. (Graphic: kawarthaNOW.com)
> COVID-19 hospitalizations and ICU admissions in Ontario from May 10 - June 9, 2021. The red line is the daily number of COVID-19 hospitalizations, the dotted green line is a five-day rolling average of hospitalizations, the purple line is the daily number of patients with COVID-19 in ICUs, and the dotted orange line is a five-day rolling average of patients with COVID-19 in ICUs. (Graphic: kawarthaNOW.com)
> COVID-19 hospitalizations and ICU admissions in Ontario from May 10 – June 9, 2021. The red line is the daily number of COVID-19 hospitalizations, the dotted green line is a five-day rolling average of hospitalizations, the purple line is the daily number of patients with COVID-19 in ICUs, and the dotted orange line is a five-day rolling average of patients with COVID-19 in ICUs. (Graphic: kawarthaNOW.com)
COVID-19 deaths in Ontario from May 10 - June 9, 2021. The red line is the cumulative number of daily deaths, and the dotted green line is a five-day rolling average of daily deaths. (Graphic: kawarthaNOW.com)
COVID-19 deaths in Ontario from May 10 – June 9, 2021. The red line is the cumulative number of daily deaths, and the dotted green line is a five-day rolling average of daily deaths. (Graphic: kawarthaNOW.com)
COVID-19 vaccinations in Ontario from May 10 - June 9, 2021. The red line is the cumulative number of daily doses administered, the dotted green line is a five-day rolling average of daily doses, and the blue line is the cumulative number of people fully vaccinated with two doses of vaccine. (Graphic: kawarthaNOW.com)
COVID-19 vaccinations in Ontario from May 10 – June 9, 2021. The red line is the cumulative number of daily doses administered, the dotted green line is a five-day rolling average of daily doses, and the blue line is the cumulative number of people fully vaccinated with two doses of vaccine. (Graphic: kawarthaNOW.com)

The provincial data in this report is pulled from Ontario’s integrated Public Health Information System (iPHIS) at 4 p.m. the previous day, as well as from systems in Toronto, Ottawa, and Middlesex-London at 2 p.m. the previous day. Data from local health units is more current and is usually reflected in the provincial data the following day. There may be discrepancies between the Ontario data reported today (which is from yesterday) and the local health unit data reported today (which is from today).

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Regional summary and details

In the greater Kawarthas region, there are 6 new cases to report, including 3 in Kawartha Lakes, 2 in Peterborough, and 1 in Hastings Prince Edward. There are no new cases in Northumberland or Haliburton.

There are 5 new regional cases of variants of concern, including 3 in Peterborough and 2 in Northumberland.

An additional 10 cases have been resolved, including 9 in Kawartha Lakes and 1 in Peterborough.

There are currently 69 active cases in the greater Kawarthas region, a decrease of 2 since yesterday, including 29 in Peterborough, 27 in Kawartha Lakes, 9 in Northumberland, 2 in Haliburton, and 2 in Hastings Prince Edward (1 in Quinte West and 1 in Belleville).

Since the pandemic began in the greater Kawarthas region, there have been 1,537 confirmed positive cases in the Peterborough area (1,487 resolved with 21 deaths), 1,064 in the City of Kawartha Lakes (993 resolved with 57 deaths), 931 in Northumberland County (905 resolved with 17 deaths), 121 in Haliburton County (118 resolved with 1 death), and 1,122 in Hastings and Prince Edward counties (1,109 resolved with 11 deaths). The most recent death was reported in Kawartha Lakes on June 5.

 

Peterborough Public Health

Peterborough Public Health’s service area is the City and County of Peterborough and the Hiawatha and Curve Lake First Nations.

The health unit provides daily reports, including on weekends, excluding statutory holidays.

Confirmed positive: 1,537 (increase of 2)
Total variants of concern cases: 714 (increase of 3)
Active cases: 29 (increase of 1)
Close contacts: 59 (decrease of 5)
Deaths: 21 (no change)
Resolved: 1,487 (increase of 1)
Hospitalizations (total to date): 72 (no change)*
ICU admissions (total to date): 15 (no change)
Total tests completed: Over 53,150 (increase of 50)
Total vaccine doses administered (residents and non-residents): 103,327 (increase of 12,611 as of June 10)
Number of residents who have received first dose: 88,834 (increase of 7,444 as of June 10)
Number of residents fully vaccinated: 14,092 (increase of 4,704 as of June 10)
Outbreaks: Unidentified workplace #11 in Peterborough, Riverview Manor long-term care home in Peterborough (no change)

*As of June 10, Peterborough Regional Health Centre is reporting 2 patients currently hospitalized with COVID-19 (no change) and a total of 76 patients transferred from other areas as a result of a provincial directive (no change).

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Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit

The Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit’s service area is the City of Kawartha Lakes, Northumberland County, and Haliburton County.

The health unit provides reports from Monday to Saturday, excluding Sundays and statutory holidays.

Confirmed positive: 2,116, including 1,064 in Kawartha Lakes, 931 in Northumberland, and 121 in Haliburton (increase of 3 in Kawartha Lakes)*
Total variants of concern cases: 764, including 393 in Kawartha Lakes, 335 in Northumberland, and 36 in Haliburton (increase of 2 in Northumberland)
Active cases: 38, including 27 in Kawartha Lakes, 9 in Northumberland, and 2 in Haliburton (decrease of 4 in Kawartha Lakes)
Probable cases: 1 in Kawartha Lakes (decrease of 2 in Kawartha Lakes)
Hospitalizations (total to date): 77, including 43 in Kawartha Lakes, 31 in Northumberland, and 3 in Haliburton (no change)**
Deaths (including among probable cases): 75, including 57 in Kawartha Lakes, 17 in Northumberland, and 1 in Haliburton (no change)
Resolved: 2,016, including 993 in Kawartha Lakes, 905 in Northumberland, and 118 in Haliburton (increase of 9 in Kawartha Lakes)
Tests completed: 197,310 (no change)
Vaccine doses administered to residents: 112,750 (increase of 7,966 as of June 7)
Number of residents fully vaccinated: 14,676 (increase of 3,568 as of June 7)
Outbreaks: Central East Correctional Centre in Lindsay, LCBO Port Hope (no change)

*The health unit states that total counts and counts for individual counties may fluctuate from previously reported counts as cases are transferred to or from the health unit based on case investigation details and routine data cleaning.

**As of June 10, Ross Memorial Hospital in Lindsay reports 1 patient hospitalized with COVID-19 (no change).

 

Hastings Prince Edward Public Health

Hastings Prince Edward Public Health’s service area is Hastings County (including Bancroft) and Prince Edward County.

The health unit provides daily reports, including on weekends, excluding statutory holidays.

Confirmed positive: 1,122 (increase of 1)
Confirmed variants of concern cases: 490 (no change)
Active cases: 2 (increase of 1)
Deaths: 11 (no change)
Currently hospitalized: 1 (no change)
Currently hospitalized and in ICU: 0 (decrease of 1)
Currently hospitalized and in ICU on ventilator: 0 (decrease of 1)
Resolved: 1,110 (no change)
Tests completed: 147,887 (no change)
Vaccine doses administered: 119,301 (increase of 2,096)
Number of people fully vaccinated: 16,264 (increase of 989)
Outbreaks: None (no change)

 

For more information about COVID-19 in Ontario, visit covid-19.ontario.ca.

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