Ontario projects 1,000 new daily COVID-19 cases by mid-October, with up to 300 ICU patients per day

Province reporting 625 new cases, including 1 in Peterborough and 3 in Prince Edward and Hastings counties

Ontario's Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. David Williams speaks about the province's updated modelling projections for the second wave of COVID-19 at a media briefing at Queen's Park on September 30, 2020. (Photo: Premier's Office)
Ontario's Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. David Williams speaks about the province's updated modelling projections for the second wave of COVID-19 at a media briefing at Queen's Park on September 30, 2020. (Photo: Premier's Office)

With 625 new COVID-19 cases reported in Ontario today, the province’s top public health officials are projecting that cases are going to double every 10 to 12 days, reaching more than 1,000 daily cases in the first half of October. This is the same upward trajectory seen in similar jurisdictions, including Victoria in Australia and Michigan in the U.S.

Dr. David Williams, Ontario’s chief medical of health, presented the province’s updated modelling for the second wave of COVID-19 at a media briefing on Wednesday (September 30), along with Ontario Health president and CEO Matthew Anderson and Adalsteinn Brown, dean of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto.

“We wanted to release this modelling to be open about the challenges our province faces and the important work we all need to do to flatten the curve,” Dr. Williams said, reminding Ontarians that it’s critical they continue to adhere to public health measures, including wearing a face mask, washing their hands frequently, avoiding large gatherings, practising physical distancing, staying home when ill, and getting tested when necessary.

“People say, ‘Well, we’ve heard this again and again and again, does it really work?’ — we saw in the first wave, it did work,” Williams said. “It brought it down. This is what Ontarians did, and did well, and did it consistently. That gives me great confidence to say ‘Let’s do it again’. It’s like a rally for the second half of whatever sports game you want to play. We’ve got to pull up our socks, we’ve got to do what we need to do, what we’re trained to do, and do it again and do it well. And we can impact the curve.”

While the second wave of COVID-19 has been affecting people mostly in the 20 to 39 age group, public health officials are now seeing cases increasing in all other age groups as well. As the virus spreads to infect older and more vulnerable people, the government is also projecting that Ontario may see between 200 and 300 patients with COVID-19 admitted to hospital intensive care units (ICUs) per day — warning that, once the province exceeds 150 patients in ICUs per day, it will become more difficult for hospitals to manage other health care needs including scheduled surgeries and, once they exceed 300 ICU patients per day, it “becomes impossible” for hospitals to manage other health care needs.

While most of the new COVID-19 cases since mid August continue to be among people 20-39, cases are now also increasing in all other age groups. The government projects that, as the virus spreads to infect older and more vulnerable people, Ontario could see as many as 300 patients with COVID-19 admitted to hospital intensive care units each day. (Graphic: Government of Ontario)
While most of the new COVID-19 cases since mid August continue to be among people 20-39, cases are now also increasing in all other age groups. The government projects that, as the virus spreads to infect older and more vulnerable people, Ontario could see as many as 300 patients with COVID-19 admitted to hospital intensive care units each day. (Graphic: Government of Ontario)

Most of today’s 625 new cases are in Toronto (288), Peel (97), and Ottawa (64), with significant increases in York (41), Halton (33), and Durham (25), with smaller increases in Simcoe Muskoka (12), Middlesex-London (11), Hamilton (11), Niagara (9), Waterloo (9), and Windsor-Essex (7). The remaining 22 public health units are reporting 5 or fewer cases, with only 10 reporting no cases at all.

Of today’s cases, 62% are among people under the age of 40. In early September, 70% of cases were in that age group — demonstrating that new cases are beginning to rise in other older age groups.

There have been 4 new deaths, following 4 new deaths yesterday. There have been 13 new hospitalizations, following 9 yesterday, for a total of 150 people now in hospital due to COVID-19, with an additional 4 people admitted to ICUs. The backlog of tests under investigation has increased by 12,367 to 67,126.

There are 52 new cases in Ontario schools today (32 students, 8 staff, and 12 unidentified individuals). In licensed child care settings, there are 10 new cases (9 children and 1 staff).

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In the greater Kawarthas region, there is 1 new case to report today in Peterborough are 3 new cases to report in Prince Edward and Hastings counties. There are no new cases to report in Kawartha Lakes, Northumberland, and Haliburton.

There are currently 11 active cases in Peterborough, 4 active cases in Prince Edward and Hastings counties, 3 active cases in Kawartha Lakes, 2 active cases in Northumberland, and 1 active case in Haliburton. None of the new cases in schools and child care settings are in the greater Kawarthas region.

Since the pandemic began in the greater Kawarthas region, there have been 121 confirmed positive cases in the Peterborough area (108 resolved with 2 deaths), 181 in the City of Kawartha Lakes (159 resolved with 32 deaths), 43 in Northumberland County (40 resolved with 1 death), 16 in Haliburton County (15 resolved with no deaths), and 56 in Hastings County and Prince Edward County (47 resolved with 5 deaths). The most recent death was reported in Northumberland on September 8.

Province-wide, there have been 51,710 confirmed cases, an increase of 625 from yesterday, with 43,907 (84.9% of all cases) resolved, an increase of 457. There have been 2,848 deaths, an increase of 4 from yesterday, with 1,836 deaths reported in long-term care homes, an increase of 3. A total of 3,923,465 tests have been completed, an increase of 35,753 from yesterday, with 67,126 tests under investigation, an increase of 12,367 from yesterday.

This report is based on data supplied by the province’s integrated Public Health Information System (iPHIS), as well as any additional information supplied by health units. This information is at least 24 hours old, so it is not real-time data. Note that each health unit reports the information in a different way.

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Peterborough Public Health

Peterborough Public Health’s service area is the City and County of Peterborough and the Hiawatha and Curve Lake First Nations.

Confirmed positive: 121 (increase of 1)
Active cases: 11 (increase of 1)
Deaths: 2 (no change)
Resolved: 108 (increase of 1)
Total tests completed: Over 29,150 (increase of 250)
Institutional outbreaks: Fairhaven (no change)

 

Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit

The Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit’s service area is the City of Kawartha Lakes, Northumberland County, and Haliburton County.

The health unit provides reports from Monday to Friday, excluding statutory holidays.

Confirmed positive: 240, including 181 in Kawartha Lakes, 43 in Northumberland, 16 in Haliburton (no change)
Probable cases: 0 (no change)
Hospitalizations (total to date): 15 (no change)
Deaths: 33 (no change)
Resolved: 214, including 159 in Kawartha Lakes, 40 in Northumberland, 15 in Haliburton (no change)
Active cases: 6, including 1 in Haliburton, 3 in Kawartha Lakes, and 2 in Northumberland
Institutional outbreaks: None (no change)

 

Hastings Prince Edward Public Health

Hastings Prince Edward Public Health’s service area is Hastings County (including Bancroft) and Prince Edward County.

The health unit provides reports on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, excluding statutory holidays.

Confirmed positive: 56 (increase of 3)
Active cases: 4 (increase of 3)
Deaths: 5 (no change)
Hospitalized: 0 (no change)
Hospitalized and in ICU: 0 (no change)
Hospitalized and in ICU on ventilator: 0 (no change)
Recovered: 47 (no change)
Total tests completed: 37,661 (increase of 1,880)
Institutional outbreaks: None (no change)

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Province of Ontario

Confirmed positive: 51,710 (increase of 625)
Resolved: 43,907 (increase of 457, 84.9% of all cases)
Hospitalized: 150 (increase of 13)
Hospitalized and in ICU: 35 (increase of 4)
Hospitalized and in ICU on ventilator: 17 (increase of 1)
Deaths: 2,848 (increase of 4)
Deaths of residents in long-term care homes: 1,836 (increase of 3)
Total tests completed: 3,923,465 (increase of 35,753)
Tests under investigation: 67,126 (increase of 12,367)

New COVID-19 cases in Ontario from August 30 - September 28, 2020. The red line is the number of new cases reported daily, and the dotted green line is a five-day moving average of new cases. (Graphic: kawarthaNOW.com)
New COVID-19 cases in Ontario from August 30 – September 28, 2020. The red line is the number of new cases reported daily, and the dotted green line is a five-day moving average of new cases. (Graphic: kawarthaNOW.com)
 COVID-19 tests completed in Ontario from August 30 - September 28, 2020. The red line is the number of tests completed daily, and the dotted green line is a five-day moving average of tests completed. (Graphic: kawarthaNOW.com)

COVID-19 tests completed in Ontario from August 30 – September 28, 2020. The red line is the number of tests completed daily, and the dotted green line is a five-day moving average of tests completed. (Graphic: kawarthaNOW.com)

 

For more information about COVID-19 in Ontario, visit covid-19.ontario.ca.

This story has been updated to include the latest reports from Peterborough Public Health and Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit.

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