After deciding last month to keep the Rotary Harbourfront Outdoor Rink open during the province-wide shutdown, the Town of Cobourg has now decided to temporarily close the rink.

Municipal council held a special emergency council meeting on Wednesday night (January 13) and unanimously decided to temporarily close the rink until 10 a.m. on Saturday, January 16th, until the Ontario government provides further clarity on what is allowed under the province’s stay-at-home order.

“We are trying to get this right in a very challenging and difficult environment,” said Cobourg mayor John Henderson. “Once we receive further direction from the Ontario government on the stay-at-home order, we can move forward with a more permanent decision on the rink.”

During an emergency meeting on December 23, council had decided to keep the rink open for the duration of the province-wide shutdown, which began on Boxing Day. A maximum of 10 skaters were allowed on the rink, which matched the maximum limit on outdoor gatherings allowed during the shutdown.

However, when the province declared a state of emergency on Tuesday (January 12), the maximum number of people allowed in an outdoor gathering was further restricted to five.

The province’s stay-at-home order, which came into effect at 12:01 a.m. on Thursday, allows people to leave home for essential purposes only. Although exercise is listed as an essential purpose, the government has provided no guidance on acceptable forms of exercise.

“What that means will be unique to each individual Ontarian,” reads a statement released by the Premier’s Office on Wednesday. “Some may wish to go for a walk around the block, while others may wish to go to a local basketball court with their household to shoot some hoops. We recommend that Ontarians consult their local public health unit or municipality to understand what recreational amenities are open in their community.”

The acting medical officer of health for the Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit expects every person to adhere to the stay-at-home order, apart from “logical, necessary, and approved reasons.”

During a virtual media briefing on Wednesday (January 13), Dr. Ian Gemmill said he is “fully supportive” of the restrictions announced by Premier Ford on Tuesday afternoon, including the stay-at-home order that goes into effect just after midnight on Thursday.

“I hope it will have the desired effect for getting a better handle, a better control, on this virus,” Dr. Gemmill said.

In provincial modelling data presented Tuesday morning at Queen’s Park, Ontario’s top public health officials said mobility and contacts between people have not decreased under current restrictions.

Without the stay-at-home order, “we would be in very serious condition four weeks from now,” Dr. Gemmill said. “Gathering and travelling is the cause of much of the spread I have seen.”

“We are expecting every person to be staying at home except for essential work, medical, or health-related appointments, and issues like medications, groceries, exercise, and family emergencies. There are no other reasons.”

Dr. Gemmill also emphasized the importance of adhering to the stay-at-home order even for residents of potentially lower-risk areas, such as Haliburton.

“I think the fact that someone lives in a small, lower-tiered township is neither here nor there,” he explained. “Every winter’s virus will eventually affect all areas. For that reason, people in no area should think ‘This shouldn’t affect me, I don’t have to worry about this.'”

“We need to make sure that our health system is able to accommodate not just people with coronavirus, but people with other illnesses. People still have heart attacks, people still have strokes, people still get cancer. Those things aren’t going away.”

According to Tuesday’s provincial modelling data report, Ontario’s health care system is becoming overwhelmed, with COVID-19 ICU occupancy now at over 400 beds. Surgeries are being cancelled and “the access to care deficit will continue to increase with real consequences for health”.

“We are in a race against this virus,” Dr. Gemmill said. “Some people are making it easy for the virus to win.”

“If we are going to win this race, we need to stop helping the virus along the way by gathering and travelling,” he added, urging the importance of holding off people from getting sick until the vaccine is widely available. “We have hope now, through a vaccine.”

As for the vaccine rollout, Dr. Gemmill said the health unit hopes to begin phase one of distributing the Pfizer vaccine to residents, staff, and essential caregivers at area long-term care homes in early February. However, this is subject to change based on the availability of the vaccine.

“We are in the process of planning for this … dusting off our mass immunization plan and working with our partners in the health sector and municipal sector and others to be ready,” he said. “Not only for phase one but also when we move into phase two.”

Phase two of the vaccine rollout — which will include essential workers, older adults, and eventually all community members who wish to be vaccinated — will take place sometime later in the spring to early summer, according to Dr. Gemmill.

Dr. Gemmill has high hopes for the Pfizer vaccine, calling it “one huge bright light that we have. It is going to be the magic bullet if we can get it into the arms of people before they get sick.”

A minimum of 70 per cent of the population must be immunized to achieve herd immunity — community-wide protection from the virus.

Dr. Gemmill said the health unit currently does not have the required facilities to store the Pfizer vaccine, so it is likely to be transferred by other facilities nearby. The health unit is currently in discussion with the province about how they are to receive the Pfizer vaccine, which will allow them to determine which long-term care homes will first receive it.

Until then, Dr. Gemmill stressed that adhering to the stay-at-home order is critical, even for people who may think it is okay if they get sick.

“Every person is only two or three degrees of separation away from a possibly vulnerable person,” he pointed out. “You can’t pretend this is 2019. It’s not. We are in the very middle of an illness that is clogging up the health system and is killing a section of the population that would otherwise be okay.”

As of Wednesday afternoon, there are 64 active cases of COVID-19 in the region served by the Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit, including 32 in the City of Kawartha Lakes, 30 in Northumberland County, and two in Haliburton County.

There have been six COVID-related deaths in the region so far this year, including four in Kawartha Lakes and two in Northumberland — with the most recent being the death of a resident at Hope Street Terrace long-term care home in Port Hope.

In an acknowledgement of the confusion resulting from Tuesday’s announcement about the stay-at-home order, Premier Doug Ford’s office released a statement and a summary of frequently asked questions on Wednesday morning (January 13).

However, the answers to the questions may raise even more questions about the stay-at-home order, which takes effect just after midnight on Thursday.

“As you’ll see, a common theme is recognizing government’s inability to implement a single set of restrictions that are perfectly responsive to the unique circumstances of every single Ontarian,” writes Travis Khan, Ford’s executive director of communications.

“How someone in downtown Toronto adheres to the stay-at-home order, where there is easy and immediate access to online shopping or a big-box retailer, will look very different than someone in a rural or remote area who relies on smaller, independent retailers, many of which are limited to curb-side pickup or delivery,” Khan writes.

“As such, and as we have from the very outset of this pandemic, we will continue to rely on the best judgment of Ontarians as they stay at home as much as possible and only leave their homes for essential purposes.”

More clarity may be available later today, as the Ontario government has promised to release the “legal parameters” for the order, which so far is only described in the following way: “All Ontarians must stay at home and only go out for essential purposes, such as going to the grocery store or pharmacy, accessing health care services, for exercise, or for essential work.”

Below is the full text of the frequently asked questions document issued by the Premier’s Office.

Why is the province issuing a stay-at-home order while also permitting curb-side pickup?

This question assumes every single person in Ontario has easy access to online shopping or that there is a big-box retailer in their community. This isn’t the case for many Ontarians who live in rural and remote areas.

We’ve learned a lot over the past year responding to this pandemic, including the fact that what may be essential to someone in Timmins and how they buy that item may not be essential to someone in downtown Toronto, who can easily buy items online for delivery. The Government of Ontario determining what retailers may be considered essential risks cutting off many Ontarians who don’t live in Toronto or an urban centre from access to necessary goods.

What is an essential item?

The Government of Ontario cannot determine what is essential for every person in this province, each with their own unique circumstances and regional considerations. Legally defining what is essential risks cutting people off from goods that may legitimately be necessary for their health, well-being and safety.

What is an essential trip?

The Government of Ontario cannot determine what is essential for every person in this province, each with their own unique circumstances and regional considerations. That said, we have provided broad categories that people should consider before leaving their home: food, health-care services, including medication, exercise or work, where someone’s job cannot be done at home.

What is essential work?

The stay-at-home order does not define what work or jobs are essential. Rather, it now mandates that anyone who can work from home must now do so. For example, someone working in retail obviously can’t do their job from home and would be permitted to go to work.

Why hasn’t the province defined who can or should work from home?

The Government of Ontario cannot review tens of millions of job descriptions to determine who can work from home. As such, we are relying on the best judgment and common sense of employers to determine who can do so. If an employee believes they should be working from home, they can contact the Ministry of Labour to file a health and safety complaint.

Why can people still gather in groups of five outdoors?

The outdoor gathering limit of five is in recognition of the fact that some people live alone and may require the company or support of others for their mental and physical well-being. Anyone gathering outside is expected to adhere to physical distancing measures and are now strongly urged to wear a mask.

Can people leave home to exercise? Can I go to my local playground or basketball court?

Yes, exercise is considered an essential reason for leaving your home. What that means will be unique to each individual Ontarian: some may wish to go for a walk around the block, while others may wish to go to a local basketball court with their household to shoot some hoops.

We recommend that Ontarians consult their local public health unit or municipality to understand what recreational amenities are open in their community.

Can someone living alone still join up with another household?

Yes, they can exclusively join one other household. This is to support their mental health and well-being, as well as to ensure those requiring support continue to have access to essential caregivers.

Is there a time limit for how long people can leave their homes?

No. That said, we’re asking Ontarians to use their best judgement when leaving their home for essential reasons. They should limit the number of stores they go to and spend as little time outside of their home as possible.

Is there a limit on the number of times someone can leave their home in a day?

No. That said, we’re asking Ontarians to use their best judgement when leaving their home for essential reasons. They should limit the number of stores they go to and spend as little time outside of their home as possible.

Can people travel to their cottages or secondary residences?

Right now, we are asking people to stay home and only leave their home for essential purposes, which could include emergency maintenance of a secondary residence. In the spirit of the stay-at-home order, at this time we are not recommending intra-provincial travel.

Long-term care residents at eight homes in the Peterborough region will receive their first dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine by February 15th.

During a media briefing held Tuesday (January 12), Peterborough medical officer of health Dr. Rosana Salvaterra said that, depending on the supply received, the vaccine’s first dose may also be administered by that date to home staff and residents’ primary caregivers.

If that happens, combined with residents, close to 2,600 doses will be administered.

“In order to reach this target of February 15, we are convening our Peterborough inter-agency COVID-19 vaccine planning team,” said Dr. Salvaterra.

“We understand that the first vaccine to be delivered to Peterborough will be the Pfizer vaccine, which will taken by mobile teams into our long-term care homes.”

“We met with (representatives of) long-term care homes Thursday (January 7). As soon as we receive confirmation of our vaccine delivery date and the supply we can expect, we will ramp up our planning to ensure a high and comprehensive uptake of the vaccine so that our residents are protected.”

Once secure, the vaccine will be stored at the Peterborough Regional Health Centre (PRHC) in an ultra-cold freezer already in place — the vaccine must be kept between -80°C and -60°C — with another to soon be added.

“We have not had written confirmation as to when to expect our first shipment of the Pfizer vaccine, or how much to expect, but we were told Sunday (January 10) that all public health units should receive it by February 1,” Dr. Salvaterra said.

Long-term care homes, noted Dr. Salvaterra, have been busy attaining signed consent forms from those wanting the vaccine.

“We are in phase one (of the vaccine roll-out plan) where we have a very limited supply of vaccine. We’re not planning on rolling the vaccine to the community until phase two in the early spring.”

Phase two of the vaccine rollout is anticipated to begin in April/May with some five million doses coming to Ontario.

“That’s the point that we expect to be doing mass immunization, starting with essential workers and adults by age starting with older adults first, the at-risk population and, by the end of the summer, seeing that opened up to all adults,” said Dr. Salvaterra, adding studies are still being done as to “whether or not we can put vaccines into the arms of children.”

As for retirement homes and other congregate facility residents, Dr. Salvaterra said she’d like to see them vaccinated by February 15 as well, but that process “may have to wait for subsequent shipments of the vaccine.”

Confirmation of the pending arrival of the vaccine doses locally is tempered by word that Fairhaven long-term care home in Peterborough is again in outbreak, the result of a staff member testing positive, with test results awaited to determined if there are more cases linked to that positive result. This is the fifth outbreak at the municipally run facility since last September.

Meanwhile, ongoing outbreaks at two local congregate living homes are “stable” with no new cases reported.

The overall picture shows that as of Tuesday (January 11), there were 51 active COVID-19 cases in Peterborough city and county, Curve Lake and Hiawatha region, with 144 close contacts of positive cases now being monitored.

Since the pandemic’s outbreak, Peterborough Public Health has reported a total of 437 cases of which 381 have been resolved. There have been five COVID-related deaths confirmed. To date, 41,100 residents have been tested.

A clear illustration of the local surge in COVD-19 cases can be seen in a month-to-month comparison. In December 2020, there were 137 confirmed cases reported by Peterborough Public Health. To date in January, there have already been 90 confirmed cases reported.

Also on hand for the briefing were Peterborough-Kawartha MP Maryam Monsef, Peterborough mayor Diane Therrien, Peterborough County warden J. Murray Jones, Hiawatha First Nations chief Laurie Carr, Peterborough Board of Health chair and Selwyn mayor Andy Mitchell, and a representative of Peterborogh-Kawartha MP Dave Smith.

“Moments ago the Government of Canada reached an agreement with Pfizer to procure an additional 20 million doses, bringing Canada’s total of secured doses to 80 million,” said MP Monsef. “Canada is on track to provide every Canadian who wants the both doses of the vaccine to have it by the end of September.”

In response to the COVID-19 situation in Ontario, Premier Doug Ford has declared a state of emergency for the province, effective immediately and remaining in place for at least 28 days.

Ford made the announcement at a media conference at Queen’s Park on Tuesday afternoon (January 12).

In addition, Ford announced a “stay-at-home order” effective at 12:01 a.m. on Thursday, January 14th. Under this order, all Ontarians must stay at home and only go out for essential purposes, such as going to the grocery store or pharmacy, accessing health care services, for exercise, or for essential work.

“More than ever, we need — I need — you to do your part,” Ford said. “Stay home, save lives, protect our health care system. The system is on the brink of collapse. It’s on the brink of being overwhelmed. We’re at levels we’ve never seen before.”

Schools in Windsor-Essex, Peel, Toronto, York, and Hamilton will remain closed for in-person learning until February 10. By January 20, Ontario’s medical officer of health will advise the Ministry of Education on schools in the remaining public health units that will be permitted to resume in-person instruction. Schools in public health units in northern Ontario will continue to remain open.

This is the second provincial emergency declared under section 7.0.1 (1) of the Emergency Management and Civil Protection Act (EMPCA) since the pandemic began. The Ontario government declared the latest state of emergency in response to updated COVID-19 modelling projections, released to the public on Tuesday morning.

In addition to the stay-at-home order, the following additional public health restrictions are in effect:

• Outdoor organized public gatherings and social gatherings are further restricted to a limit of five people, with limited exceptions.
• Individuals are required to wear a mask or face covering in the indoor areas of businesses or organizations that are open. Wearing a mask or face covering is now recommended outdoors when you can’t physically distance more than two metres.
• All non-essential retail stores, including hardware stores, alcohol retailers, and those offering curbside pickup or delivery, must open no earlier than 7 a.m. and close no later than 8 p.m. The restricted hours of operation do not apply to stores that primarily sell food, pharmacies, gas stations, convenience stores, and restaurants for takeout or delivery.
• Non-essential construction is further restricted, including below-grade construction, exempting survey.

These measures will come into effect between Tuesday, January 12th and Thursday, January 14th.

The province will provide authority to all enforcement and provincial offences officers, including the Ontario Provincial Police, local police forces, bylaw officers, and provincial workplace inspectors to issue tickets to individuals who do not comply with the stay-at-home-order, or those not wearing a mask or face covering indoors as well as retail operators and companies who do not enforce.

In response to a reporter’s question about whether the stay-at-home order was enforceable, Ford emphasized the order is not the same as a curfew.

“A curfew is you aren’t leaving your house, simple as that,” Ford said. “After 8 o’clock — you see what’s happening in Quebec — the streets are empty. I’ve never been in favour of a curfew. That’s a hard, hard lockdown. Cars aren’t driving around, nothing at all.”

“One of the big changes with the stay-at-home order is actually allowing and empowering provincial offences officers, most commonly by-law enforcement officers, to also issue tickets and disperse crowds of larger than five if they aren’t in the same household,” added Sylvia Jones, Ontario’s solicitor general.

Those who decide not to abide by orders will be subject to set fines and/or prosecution under both the Reopening Ontario Act and EMCPA. All enforcement personnel will also have the authority to temporarily close a premise and disperse individuals who are in contravention of an order and will be able to disperse people who are gathering, regardless whether a premise has been closed or remains open (such as a park or house).

For more details on the state of emergency, visit news.ontario.ca/en/release/59922/ontario-declares-second-provincial-emergency-to-address-covid-19-crisis-and-save-lives.

This story has been updated with additional details about the state of emergency.

On Tuesday (January 12), Ontario’s top public health officials shared the COVID-19 modelling projections that Ontario Premier Doug Ford said last week would make people “fall off your chair”.

Adalsteinn Brown, the dean of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto, presented the modelling projections at a media conference at Queen’s Park.

“We’re at a dangerous point,” Brown said. “The number of cases in Ontario is growing between three per cent and five per cent almost every day. There are already more than 400 COVID-19 patients in our intensive care units, and mortality in our long-term care homes is now on a pace to exceed the tragedy of the first wave.”

Brown noted that COVID-19 is now in every region of Ontario.

“This is no longer a problem of a small group of cities or one region of the province,” he said. “More than half of our intensive care units are full, or only have one or two beds left.”

With COVID-19 ICU occupancy now over 400 beds, surgeries are being cancelled and the access to care continues to decline below 2019 levels.

“The pandemic will have serious consequences for our health in every region of Ontario,” Brown said. “As we climb closer to a thousand intensive care beds — about half of our capacity — filled with COVID-19 patients in February, we will have to confront choices that no doctor ever wants to make, and no family ever wants to hear.”

“There will be choices about who will get the care they need and who will not,” he added. “There will be choices about who receives oxygen or is transported to hospital — decisions we are already seeing being forced on ambulance crews in California, where the virus has spread widely.”

“I want to emphasize that the choices will affect all patients needing intensive care, whether it’s patients who have a heart attack, who’ve been in a motor vehicle accident, who have COVID-19 or any other cause.”

Brown added that surgeries will be delayed or cancelled, and that delays in care will result in poorer outcomes for patients.

The situation is also dire for residents of Ontario’s long-term care homes, with almost 40 per cent of homes now having active COVID-19 outbreaks. So far in the second wave, 1,119 long-term care residents have died from COVID-19, compared to just over 1,900 in the first wave. In the worst-case scenario, Brown said, this number will exceed 2,600 by February 14.

Despite current levels of restrictions, growth in cases across Ontario has accelerated and is over seven per cent on the worst days, Brown said. The growth in cases is attributed to a large minority of Ontarians — almost a third — not following public health restrictions.

A recent survey of Ontarians found that 35 per cent of respondents said that people in their neighbourhoods were either occasionally or never practising physically distancing. Of those surveyed, 32 per cent said three or more people outside their household had visited their house for a meal, celebration, or stay over in the past month. Of these respondents, 34 per cent of these said they didn’t observe public health restrictions.

“If we do hit the five per cent level of growth, which is quite possible, we’ll be looking at over 20,000 cases per day by the middle of February,” Brown warned. “And if we get into a darker situation with seven per growth, we’ll be looking at over 40,000 cases per day”.

Daily mortality is also increasing under current restrictions, and is projected to double from 50 to 100 deaths per day between now and end of February.

“This would really put COVID-19 into competition for being the single greatest cause of mortality on a daily basis, potentially larger than cancer and heart disease,” Brown said. “It’s already larger than virtually any other cause that we look at, but this would put it into the first position.”

Brown also said the new variant of the virus causing COVID-19 could affect modelling projections.

Novel SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 — commonly called the UK variant as it was first identified in southeast England in November — is much more easily transmitted. While it is not more virulent and responds to vaccines, if B.1.1.7 spreads in the community, the growth of new cases could accelerate even more, with cases doubling in just 10 days in March.

Dr. Barbara Yaffe, Ontario’s associate chief medical officer of health, said there are now eight known cases of B.1.1.7 in Ontario, five of which are connected to travel to the U.K.

In response to the new modelling projections, Premier Doug Ford will be announcing further restrictions at Queen’s Park on Tuesday afternoon.

PDF: Update on COVID-19 Projections – January 12, 2021
Update on COVID-19 Projections - Science Advisory and Modelling Consensus Tables - January 12, 2021
Downloadable version