The COVID-19 pandemic in Canada is slowing because of public health measures, but public health officials are still projecting as many as 66,835 cases and 3,883 deaths by early May.

Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief public health officer, provided an update on the federal government’s COVID-19 modelling projections at a technical briefing on Tuesday (April 28).

Earlier in the day, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke from outside of his home in Ottawa to give the “bottom line” of the federal modelling projections.

“The measures we’ve taken so far are working,” Trudeau said. “In fact, in many parts of the country, the curve has flattened.”

“But we’re not out of the woods yet. We’re in the middle of the most serious public health emergency Canada has ever seen, and if we lift measures too quickly, we might lose the progress we made.”

As the technical briefing, Dr. Tam began by providing an overview of the current status of the epidemic in Canada.

“There are now 49,025 confirmed cases, including 2,766 deaths,” Dr. Tam said. “To date, labs across Canada have tested over 740,000 people for COVID-19, with about seven per cent of these testing positive. Over 20,000 people have been tested daily, as provinces and territories continue to increase testing capacity.”

Dr. Tam said the objective for this phase of the epidemic in Canada is to control the spread of the virus, by using self-isolation and physical distancing to reduce the number of people any one person infects to less than one other person, ending onward transmission.

Once that happens, the epidemic will die out. Currently, one person is infecting just more than one other person in Canada.

Epidemic growth has levelled off in several provinces, Dr. Tam said, with cases in Quebec, Ontario, and Alberta driving recent growth.

Outbreaks in long-term care and seniors’ homes are responsible for most of the growth of the epidemic, and for 79 per cent of deaths. Outbreaks in other congregate living settings, such as homeless shelters and correctional facilities where physical distancing is difficult, are also driving the epidemic’s growth.

That said, the overall growth of the epidemic in Canada is slowing more than in many other countries. The number of positive cases in Canada was doubling every three days early in the epidemic, and is now doubling every 16 days.

The federal government first released modelling projections on April 9th. At that time, public health officials projected 22,580 to 31,850 cases by April 16th, with between 500 and 700 deaths. The actual number of cases on April 16th was just over 30,000, but with 1,200 deaths — around double the projection.

Current federal modelling is now projecting between 53,186 and 66,835 cases by May 5th, with 3,277 to 3,883 deaths.

Dr. Tam stressed that it is “critically important” to maintain current public health measures until the first wave of the epidemic is under control.

Relaxing measures too soon and too quickly could put Canada at risk of future epidemic waves, she said.

COVID-19 in Canada: Modelling Update – April 28, 2020

While the dramatic increase in positive COVID-19 cases reported in the Peterborough area over the weekend could be seen as discouraging, Dr. Lynn Mikula of Peterborough Regional Health Centre (PRHC) says it’s a positive sign that stepped-up testing is doing its job.

“We have a lower threshold for symptoms and we are testing more people,” said Dr. Mikula, PRHC’s Chief Medical Executive and Chief of Staff, during a media briefing held on Tuesday (April 28).

“With an increased testing strategy, we expected to find more cases in the community. We’re looking harder and we’re finding them. We’re now getting a better sense of the prevalence of COVID-19 in our region.”

“I understand it’s really easy to look at the curve and see it going up all of sudden and feel discouraged,” Dr. Mikula says. “I’m not discouraged. We wanted to be doing more testing and we know it’s the first step to being able to get a handle on COVID-19.”

“I’m quite pleased that we’re starting to do this number of tests and getting a deeper understanding of what’s going on in our region. I would like to see us do even more testing.”

Since opening, the PRHC Assessment Centre has tested more than 2,600 people, but more than half of those tests have been conducted since April 16th.

As of Tuesday (April 28), PRHC is treating one COVID-19 patient in its intensive care unit. The case of a second patient who was admitted with a COVID-19 diagnosis has been resolved.

“We have not identified any new cases among PRHC staff members,” says Dr. Mikula, adding “We continue to actively screen for symptoms in all patients, visitors and staff.”

An appointment with the PRHC Assessment Centre can be made by calling 705-876-5086. The centre is open seven days a week, 8 a.m. to 8 p.m.

As of Tuesday morning (April 28), Peterborough Public Health was reporting 83 positive COVID-19 cases in Peterborough city and county, Curve Lake and Hiawatha — a dramatic increase since late last week when 61 cases were reported. The latest local numbers also show 713 test results are still pending.

To date, 2,317 tests have come back negative. Another 40 cases have been resolved. There has been one local COVID-19 related death: Peterborough photographer and retired psychologist Dr. George Dimitroff, 68, died April 12 at PRHC.

Across Ontario, again as of Tuesday morning (April 28), the total number of positive cases stood at 15,381 with 8,964 of those resolved and 951 deaths linked to COVID-19. A total of 253,040 people have been tested with results awaited on 6,282 tests.

Dr. Mikula noted PRHC’s Mobile Assessment Plus Response Team continues to support long-term care and retirement homes via on-site clinical assessments and testing as well as education and training on the use of Personal Protective Equipment. The team, she adds, will be on site at several homes this week.

Dr. Mikula again stressed that PRHC remains open for emergency care, noting “We have enhanced measures in safe to keep people safe.” Non-urgent tests, appointments, and procedures remain on indefinite hold.

Ross Memorial Hospital in Lindsay is launching a mobile COVID-19 team to support long-term care, retirement, and other congregate living facilities in the City of Kawartha Lakes.

The team will assist with infection prevention and control (IPAC) education, staffing, and mobile COVID-19 assessment and testing.

The hospital has already piloted some mobile testing and IPAC education services and is working with the Haliburton Kawartha Pine Ridge (HKPR) District Health Unit, Kawartha Lakes Paramedic Services, and local long-term care facilities on next steps.

There are currently two COVID-19 outbreaks in long-term care facilities in Kawartha Lakes, one at Pinecrest Nursing Home and one at Case Manor Care Community. Both homes are located in Bobcaygeon.
The outbreak at Pinecrest, which was declared on March 20th, resulted in the deaths of 28 residents.

The outbreak at Case Manor was declared on April 26th after four residents and four staff tested positive for COVID-19.

Another outbreak was declared at the hospital itself on April 17th, after a patient hospitalized for an unrelated health issue in the Continuing Care Program (CCP1) unit tested positive for COVID-19.

On April 20th, two hospital workers on the unit tested positive for COVID-19, but it has since been determined through contact tracing that one of the infections was unrelated to the hospital. Both workers are self-isolating and will require negative testing before returning to work.

If you are interested in supporting Ross Memorial Hospital’s COVID-19 response:

• Donate to the Ross Memorial Hospital Foundation by visiting foundation.rmh.org or by calling 705-328-6146
• Donate non-medical homemade masks for hospital visitors and patients leaving the hospital
• Donate personal protective equipment (PPE) including unopened or unused surgical masks, N95 respirator masks, gloves, and waterproof gowns. To arrange a donation, contact Marc Sorensen at msorensen@rmh.org or 705-324-6111 ext. 8952.

kawarthaNOW is providing a daily report of COVID-19 cases in the greater Kawarthas region.

Here’s today summary: there are 83 confirmed positive cases in the Peterborough area, 136 in the City of Kawartha Lakes, 13 in Northumberland County, 7 in Haliburton County, and 38 in Hastings County and Prince Edward County.

That’s an increase of 14 cases, with 5 additional cases in Peterborough and 9 additional cases in Kawartha Lakes. This is the third straight day of double-digit increases in positive cases (17 on April 26th and 10 on April 25th).

There have been 35 deaths, with no change since yesterday’s report. The most recent death was reported by Hastings Prince Edward Public Health on April 26th.

Four new COVID-19 institutional outbreaks have been declared: Empress Gardens Retirement Residence, Extendicare Lakefield, and Peterborough Retirement Residence in Peterborough and Peterborough County and Case Manor in Bobcaygeon in the Kawartha Lakes.

Province-wide, there are 14,856 confirmed cases, an increase of 424 from yesterday’s report, and 892 deaths, an increase of 57 from yesterday’s report. A total of 242,188 tests have been completed, an increase of 12,550 from yesterday’s report, with 5,001 cases under investigation.

This report is based on data supplied by the province’s integrated Public Health Information System (iPHIS), as well as any additional information supplied by hospitals. This information is at least 24 hours old, so it is not real-time data.

We publish the daily report, usually by late afternoon, with the most current information released by health units. Note that each health unit reports the information in a different way.

Peterborough Public Health

Peterborough Public Health’s service area is the City and County of Peterborough and the Hiawatha and Curve Lake First Nations.

Confirmed positive: 83 (increase of 5 from April 26)
Confirmed negative: 2,317 (increase of 161 from April 26)
Results pending: 713 (increase of 211 from April 26)
Deaths: 1 (no change from April 26)
Resolved: 40 (no change from April 26)
Total tests completed: 3,113 (increase of 377 from April 26)
Institutional Outbreaks: St. Joseph’s at Fleming, St. John’s Senior Centre, Empress Gardens Retirement Residence, Extendicare Lakefield, Peterborough Retirement Residence (increase of 3 from April 26)*

*Number of cases not reported.

Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit

The Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit’s service area is the City of Kawartha Lakes, Northumberland County, and Haliburton County.

Confirmed positive: 156, including 136 in Kawartha Lakes, 13 in Northumberland, 7 in Haliburton (increase of 9 from April 26)
Hospitalizations: 10 (no change from April 26)
Deaths: 32, including 28 in Pinecrest Nursing Home in Bobcaygeon (no change from April 26)
Resolved: 113 (increase of 1 from April 26)
Institutional Outbreaks: Pinecrest Nursing Home in Bobcaygeon, Ross Memorial Hospital in Lindsay, Case Manor in Bobcaygeon (increase of 1 from April 26)*

*Number of cases not reported.

Hastings Prince Edward Public Health

Hastings Prince Edward Public Health’s service area is Hastings County (including Bancroft) and Prince Edward County.

Confirmed positive: 38 (no change from April 26)
Probable cases: 208 (decrease of 29 from April 26)
Deaths: 2 (no change from April 26)
Hospitalized: 2 (decrease of 4 from April 26)
Hospitalized and in ICU: 1 (decrease of 1 from April 26)
Hospitalized and in ICU on ventilator: 0 (no change from April 26)
Recovered: 17 (no change from April 26)
Total tests completed: 1,853 (increase of 91 from April 26)
Institutional Outbreaks: Hastings Manor in Belleville, Moira Place in Tweed (no change from April 26)*

*Number of cases not reported.

Province of Ontario

Confirmed positive: 14,856 (increase of 424 from April 26)
Hospitalized: 945 (increase of 7 from April 26)
Hospitalized and in ICU: 241 (decrease of 11 from April 26)
Hospitalized and in ICU on ventilator: 191 (decrease of 4 from April 26)
Deaths: 892 (increase of 57 from April 26)
Total tests completed 242,188 (increase of 12,550 from April 26)
Tests under investigation: 5,001 (decrease of 2,416 from April 26)
Resolved: 8,525 (increase of 525 from April 26)

For more information about COVID-19 in Ontario, visit covid-19.ontario.ca.

On Monday (April 27), Ontario Premier Doug Ford unveiled the government’s framework for eventually reopening the province’s economy after the shutdown caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Ford was joined at the announcement by Health Minister Christine Elliott, Minister of Finance Rod Phillips, and Minister of Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade Vic Fedeli.

“Our government has developed a framework for reopening Ontario’s economy,” Ford said. “This framework is a roadmap. It will guide our collective decision making. It lays out the threshold we need to hit, the targets we need to work towards.”

Reopening will be gradual and occur in three stages, with no set timeframes for the stages. There will be two-to-four weeks between the launch of each stage to allow health officials to assess conditions before moving to the next one. This will determine if measures should be adjusted, loosened or tightened.

“The framework is about how we are reopening, not when we are reopening,” Ford added. “Let me be crystal clear: as long as this virus remains a threat to Ontario, we will continue to take every precaution necessary. We will continue to act based on the best advice available to us.”

“No-one wants the economy to open up more than I do, but we can’t take anything for granted. We can’t take unnecessary risks because, we’ve seen around the world, all it takes is one person. If precautions are not taken, one person infected with this virus can spread it to hundreds of others.”

Here are three stages:

1. The first stage would include opening select workplaces that can meet current public health guidelines, allowing essential gatherings of a limited number of people, and opening some outdoor spaces.
2. The second stage would include opening more workplaces with significant mitigation plans, opening more public spaces, and allowing some larger public gatherings.
3. The third and final stage would include opening all workplaces responsibly and relaxing restrictions on public gatherings.

During all three stages, there would be continued protections for vulnerable populations.

When making decisions for each stage, the Ontario government will consider factors such as the risk of the spread of COVID-19 and the ability to implement protective and preventative measures in the workplace.

Ontario’s Chief Medical Officer of Health and health experts will advise the government on when it may begin to ease public health measures using a range of criteria, including:

• a consistent two-to-four week decrease in the number of new daily COVID-19 cases
• sufficient acute and critical care capacity, including access to ventilators and ongoing availability of personal protective equipment
• approximately 90% of new COVID-19 contacts are being reached by local public health officials within one day, with guidance and direction to contain community spread
• ongoing testing of suspected COVID-19 cases, especially of vulnerable populations, to detect new outbreaks quickly

The government also announced the Ontario Jobs and Recovery Committee to support Ontario’s recovery efforts by consulting Ontarians and developing a plan to stimulate economic growth and job creation, while maintaining the health and safety of the people of Ontario.

The committee includes:

• Rod Phillips, Chair, Minister of Finance
• Vic Fedeli, Vice Chair, Minister of Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade
• Peter Bethlenfalvy, President of the Treasury Board
• Caroline Mulroney, Minister of Transportation
• Christine Elliott, Deputy Premier and Minister of Health
• Ernie Hardeman, Minister of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs
• Greg Rickford, Minister of Energy, Northern Development and Mines and Minister of Indigenous Affairs
• John Yakabuski, Minister of Natural Resources and Forestry
• Laurie Scott, Minister of Infrastructure
• Lisa MacLeod, Minister of Heritage, Sport, Tourism and Culture Industries
• Lisa Thompson, Minister of Government and Consumer Services
• Monte McNaughton, Minister of Labour, Training and Skills Development
• Prabmeet Sarkaria, Associate Minister of Small Business and Red Tape Reduction

The committee, along with MPPs, will be meeting with people and businesses across all sectors impacted by the COVID-19 outbreak.

Ontario first declared a state of emergency on March 17th and ordered the closure of businesses it deemed non-essential. On April 14th, the province extended the state of emergency until May 12th.

For more information about the framework, visit ontario.ca/page/reopening-ontario-after-covid-19.

kawarthaNOW has learned there is a COVID-19 outbreak at Case Manor Care Community long-term care facility in Bobcaygeon.

Sienna Living, which operates the home, issued an update to families of residents on Sunday (April 26) indicating that four residents and four workers at the home have tested positive for COVID-19.

“We want to let you know that on April 22nd, we completed proactive testing of all residents and team member(s) with the assistance of Ross Memorial Hospital,” the update reads. “Public Health confirmed today that four residents and four team member(s) have tested positive for COVID-19.”

According to the update, the residents who have tested positive live on the first, second, and third floors and are all in isolation.

“The team is doing a tremendous job managing the situation and we are working closely with Public Health,” the update reads. “All proper precautions and directives are in place.”

According to the update, steps taken by the home include isolation protocols in all home areas (with all residents dining in their rooms), all team members wearing surgical face masks and having their temperatures taken twice per shift, frequent monitoring of all residents’ health (including temperatures checked twice daily), rigorous frequent cleaning and disinfecting of all surfaces, and prohibiting non-essential visitors (with active screening for any essential visitor, including temperature checks).

Case Manor Care Community is a 96-bed long-term care home located at 28 Boyd Street in Bobcaygeon. It provides residential care in 57 private rooms and 39 basic rooms along with 24-hour nursing and personal care.

The Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit has not yet formally declared a COVID-19 outbreak at the facility, according to the latest COVID-19 report from the health unit issued on April 26th.

The other long-term care facility in Bobcaygeon, Pinecrest Nursing Home, suffered a COVID-19 outbreak break early on during the pandemic that subsequently resulted in the deaths of 28 residents. At the time, it was the largest outbreak in Ontario with the large number of deaths drawing national attention. Since then, most remaining residents at Pinecrest have recovered and are doing well.

This is a developing story.

Effective Monday (April 27), the Peterborough Downtown Business Improvement Area (DBIA) will be donating $25 for every $50 in gift cards purchased at supportdowntownptbo.ca to the Peterborough Regional Health Centre (PRHC) Foundation in support of the hospital’s COVID-19 response effort.

“The support of our community has been phenomenal,” says DBIA executive director Terry Guiel. “Your support with these gift cards has absolutely helped to save some of our local businesses. Let’s keep this up and support our hospital and the amazing work they’re doing to keep us safe.”

Thanks to a generous community donation of up to $50,000 from local philanthropists David and Patricia Morton, the PRHC Foundation is able to match community donations for a limited time.

This means that when you purchase of $50 in gift cards from downtown Peterborough businesses, the Peterborough DBIA’s donation of $25 will be doubled to $50 for the PRHC Foundation.

The Peterborough DBIA will continue to donate $25 to the PRHC Foundation for every $50 in gift cards purchased until $5,000 in gift cards have been purchased.

Donations to the PRHC Foundation’s COVID-19 response fund will help fund additional ventilators, laryngoscopes for emergency intubation, additional ICU beds, wellness supports for staff who must stay at the hospital while treating patients, and more protective equipment and scrubs to help keep frontline healthcare workers safe.

The Peterborough DBIA launched the supportdowntownptbo.ca gift card website in late March as a way to support downtown Peterborough businesses forced to close their doors or reduce their business due to the pandemic.

To purchase gift cards and support local businesses and frontline healthcare workers:

• Visit supportdowntownptbo.ca
• Find your favourite shops, restaurants, pubs, and services
• Select the gift cards you would like to purchase and add them to your cart
• Select the $25 PRHC Foundation Special Promotion and add one for every $50 in gift cards you purchase
• Check out
• Receive your gift cards (or instructions from the business via email on next steps to activate it) in the mail to use at a later date.

Kawartha Conservation has announced a reduction of nearly 60 per cent of its full-time and contract staff due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The reduction took effect on Friday (April 24).

“This was an extremely difficult decision,” says Kawartha Conservation CAO Mark Majchrowski in a media release issued on Monday (April 27). “There are no words to adequately reflect how much we struggled as an organization with this decision and the impact it will have on our staff.”

Operating with a reduced work force, Kawartha Conservation will continue to provide necessary and essential services including flood forecasting and precipitation monitoring, source water protection, and planning and permitting functions.

Kawartha Conservation is a non-profit organization that conducts watershed planning, stewardship activities, environmental monitoring and research, and management of conservation and natural areas.

Its programs and services are focused within the natural boundaries of the Kawartha watershed — a total of 2,563 square kilometres — and includes the City of Kawartha Lakes, Township of Scugog, Township of Brock, Municipality of Clarington, Municipality of Trent Lakes, and Township of Cavan Monaghan.

As a tax-supported organization, Kawartha Conservation is responsible to a board of directors comprised of representatives from six member municipalities.

“A lot of our member municipalities are struggling and have had to make the difficult choice to reduce their work forces, in some cases by several hundred employees,” Majchrowski says. “We are in this struggle together and we need to recognize and adapt to the pressures our municipal partners, communities, businesses and the public is experiencing. The only way through this is together.”

The layoffs will impact business areas including outdoor education, watershed monitoring, citizen science projects, stewardship initiatives, and administrative functions.

“We know these are not easy times for any of us, and they will be particularly difficult for the staff we are having to temporarily lay off as a result,” Majchrowski says “It is our sincere hope that all of us continue to do the things we need to do to help flatten the curve, and to get through this pandemic so we can begin re-integrating staff back into their positions as soon as possible.”